Day Pivot point R 5097 R 5023 R 4902 PV 4828 S 4707 S 4633
Resistances UT 5 R 4805 S 4780 R 4750 R 4730
Supports UT 5 S 4710 S 4690 4670/80 S 4650
next statisticalMich Sentiment-Prel 16h00-10:00 NY-14:00 GMT.
Analysis The U.S. statistics have been good which has not helped the euro to cross the barrier of 4750. The statistical at 16h00/14: 00 GMT/10;00 NY would normally be good and trigger downward on euro. Otherwise the euro/$ could come back to 4750. But with oil falling, there is little chance that the euro/$ change his downtrend.
So always selling for a target tonight between 4590 and 4650. For the adventurous, there is support at 4680 for 4705/4720 (under 4680 objective 4650)
Day Pivot pointR 5138 R 5051 R 4989 PV 4902 S 4840 S 4753
ResistancesUT 5R 4990 R 4980 R 4950 R 4920/30
Supports UT 5S S 4905 S 4880/75 S 4850/60 4830
Next statistics14h30/8:30 Retails sales 16h00/10:00 Business Inventories 16h35/10h35 Crude inventories
StrategyThe euro has gone this morning on 4980 and it returned to 4915. Pending the U.S. statistics, it should remain as yesterday in a range between 4860 and 4930 ( under 4850 down for 4820). Also buy the area 4860/75 for a return on 4930before US statistics .
Always take sale positions for 4950/4980 for 4820. But be careful before U.S. statistics, which do not help the dollar.
Day Pivot point R 5246 R 5165 R 52024 PV 4943 S 4802 S4721
Resistances UT 5 5 R 4975/80 R 4950 R 4930
Supports UT 5 S 4905 S 4880/75 S 4830
Next statistics 18h00/14:00 Treasury budget
As agreed the euro climbed back on 4950 but he failed to return to 4980. Finally, the downward force has been back to 4885. The end of the day will end it as yesterday with a new low? I do not think so because of the statistical U.S. 18h00/12: 00. Nevertheless, it is better to play it down for the end of the day.
Day Pivot point R 55588 R 5450 R 5207 PV 5069 S 4826 S4445
ResistancesUT 5R 5105 R 5 R 5075/80 R 5050 R 5030/20
Supports UT 5 S 4990 S 4980 S 4950
Next statistics No statistics
The euro is moving in a range between 4975 and 5015. Whenever he tries to rebound he was arrested over the area 5020/30 (large area of resistance). Without helping oil, it seems that the euro will have difficulty passing this area. Also, continue to sell 5020/30 (stoploss 5045) for a return to 4990/70 and try long position in this area for 5005/15 with short stoploss.
As on the euro, we find the same configuration but this time upward. The chart above, schow you , the basis of the movement (A) and resistance point (B) (now support) that should send us on (C) at 1.1434. If this movement continues, it must pass the resistance who are at 1.0831 and 1.0100.
If, as many analysts “believe, think” there is a change cycle with a return of the strong $ (For the moment just bullish on daily, not monthly) then it is likely that we will see on of these objectives above.
Don’t forget that like other parities, the current international situation (Iran, Georgia) and the price of oil will confirm or deny this change.
Don’t forget also that the economic situation in the U.S. is not yet quite stable and a bank scandal linked to subprime can happen.
Finally, we will follow next month details of the U.S. monetary policy.
The strategy for this week is to enjoy any bearish return on 1.0954 to take bullish positions with the objectives at 1.0840 and 1.1000 “and maybe 1.1430″ which should be the ultimate objective of this wave of increase.
For sellers, the best is to sell the resistance as 1.0840 or 1.0145 for a return to 1.0594
The past week, the euro has descended in a straight line to 1.5000 without offering us a rebound. Should we expect a rebound this week?
As you can see on the chart. We started from the highest at 1.60 (A) to the resistance of 5323 (B) which was the basis of our double top.
If we retreat A-B we get 4646 (C), which should normally be the end of this cycle of decline.
Now the question is ? will we have a bounce on Monday on 1.50 ? or will we go on our support at 4911 (S 1) to bounce back? It is possible that we return to 5050/5080 ( 5185/5205) and from there, we restart downwar trend for 4911. On this level, we should find a good support for a few days or weeks for a range. The passage below 4911 will be the signal for 4646.
Also, it is preferable to continue to sell the resistance as indicators do not give us an other signal. For the adventurous, buy supports for target at 5050/5080 or 5180/5205, with shorts stoploss . Do not hesitate to reverse positions.
Day Pivot pointR 5639 R 5593 R 5537 PV 5491 S 5435 S 5389
Resistances en UT 5R 5475 R 5560 R 5450 R 5440
Supports en UT 5 S 5405 S 5390 S 5380
Next statistics stocks pétrole US 16h30
Down, down, down ! The 5440, have not kept. Stops on momentary 5410 to be re tested later. If it was dropping then 5380 would be online. The statistical oil will be decisive for the euro today, to 16.30.
Also, as in any bear market, it is better to sell the rebounds. For long, let go of Statistics and good luck for a return in 5440 if 5410 is not pushed.
Point du jour - Viewpoint at 12h30
Point pivot du jour - Day Pivot pointR 5639 R 5593 R 5537 PV 5491 S 5435 S 5389
Résistances - Resistances en UT 5R 5575 R 5540 R 5520 R 5505
Supports - Supports en UT 5 S 5475 S 5450 S 5435
Prochaines stats - Next statistics stocks pétrole US 16h30
StrategyThe euro has tried to outflank 5520 this morning. But he was returned to the decline by strong barrier stoploss on the area 5520/30.
Apart from the statistics of oil this afternoon, no other event to report. Also, the euro should remain in its downward trend. As a result, sell the highest with stoploss to the area 5520/30.
For the optimists, big barrier stoploss in 5445. So positioning on the support and 70/85 for 5505/5520 return.
Viewpoint at 09h00
Day Pivot pointR 5639 R 5593 R 5537 PV 5491 S 5435 S 5389
Resistances en UT 5R 5575 R 5540 R 5520 R 5505
Supports en UT 5 S 5475 S 5450 S 5435
Next statistics 11h30 GB 12h00 DE
Morning strategy Yesterdaywas a bad day for euro , mainly due to sales panic on oil and expectations of the Fed. That night, the euro is well backtracked its lowest and could continue its upward pending the meeting of the ECB tomorrow.
Nevertheless, the trend is still bearish and if oil continued its decline the rebound will be a flash in the pan.
For buyers take position on 5480/70/50 for a return to 5520. Once past 5520 target 5550/5575.
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Triangles regularly form in the forex market. They are patterns in the currency pairs that typically form on daily or weekly charts, although you can see them unfold on much shorter time periods such as 5-minute, 30-minute, or hourly. Currency pairs will often trend in the direction of the breakout from a triangle.
Triangles, whether they are bullish or bearish, are part of a bigger group of price patterns known as continuation patterns. Continuation patterns predict that a currency pair will continue along its existing trend, whether the trend is upward or downward; therefore, it’s important to look for triangles within the context of existing trends.
Bullish Triangle
Description: A bullish triangle is a symmetrical triangle that forms in the context of an upward trend. The triangle starts with a big upward move in the currency pair over a short period of time. The pair then proceeds to reverse lower, bounce higher, and continues to do so along converging support and resistance lines. The lines meet at the apex of the triangle, at which point the pair generally breaks higher.
Nuances: The triangle itself is symmetrical and, in fact, neutral in terms of directional bias. It’s only a bullish triangle if it occurs in the context of a bullish trend. It’s very important that you’re independently defining trend for when you come across situations such as triangles.
Bullish triangles don’t necessarily have to reach the apex before breaking. Oftentimes you will see bullish triangles break well in advance of reaching the apex.
Application: A bullish triangle is confirmed once the currency pair breaks above the upper-end of the triangle, which is defined by the downward sloping resistance line. The price objective for the pattern is determined by adding the widest point of the triangle to the breakout point. The time horizon over which the price objective might be achieved can be approximated by measuring the time that the bullish triangle took to form.
Bearish Triangle
Description: A bearish triangle is a symmetrical triangle that forms in the context of a downward trend. The triangle starts with a big downward move in the currency pair over a short period of time. The pair then proceeds to bounce higher, reverse lower, and continues to do so along converging support and resistance lines. The lines meet at the apex of the triangle, at which point the pair generally breaks lower.
Nuances: The triangle itself is symmetrical and, in fact, neutral in terms of directional bias. It’s only a bearish triangle if it occurs in the context of a bearish trend. It’s very important that you’re independently defining trend for when you come across situations such as triangles.
Bearish triangles don’t necessarily have to reach the apex before breaking. Oftentimes you will see bearish triangles break well in advance of reaching the apex.
Application: A bearish triangle is confirmed once the currency pair breaks below the lower-end of the triangle, which is defined by the upward sloping support line. The price objective for the pattern is determined by subtracting the widest point of the triangle from the breakout point. The time horizon over which the price objective might be achieved can be approximated by measuring the time that the bearish triangle took to form.
Bullish and bearish triangles occur fairly often in the forex market across different timeframes. You can learn to trade triangles in a very precise manner by using point and figure charts, which are much more objective and precise than your traditional bar or candlestick charts. In fact, there are rules that help to precisely define triangles, when they break, and when to pull the trigger on a trade based on the pattern. Moreover, you can even use point and figure charts to project a price target based on the triangle.
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